I'm going to talk a bit about different strategies and things to consider before you start laying correct scores.
Stick to 1 or 2 correct scores per game. The more scores you lay the more chance there is of one of them coming in(obviously). It's rare that I will lay more than 2 correct scores in any one game and when I do it's only if all my indicators are showing that laying 3,4 or more correct scores represents real value as they're well under-priced.
How high a price to lay to?.............For me personally I have two separate banks. One is for laying at low-mid prices(10-35)and the other for laying at higher prices(35-100). I have never(nor do I intend to) layed a correct score at greater than 100.
Why not more than 100? well think of it like this...often there is one correct score available to lay at 300 the implied probability at that price is %0.333 chance of this score occurring. It is impossible to predict the outcome of a soccer game with accuracy to within 2 decimal places. So if we decide to lay at 300 we have no idea if this is a good bet since the true probability could easily have been for example %0.4 in which case we just layed an outcome that should be 250 at 300 which makes the bet a loser in the long run and -ev.
more soon....
Have been experimenting with backing correct scores over last 2-3 months, ie, 2-1 both ways etc.
ReplyDeleteUp until a couple of weeks ago it had been going ok, think it more down to ill-discipline than system, but I have blown a large hole in the bank I was building up.
Only paper trading in effect with £3-4 bets, but did get up to about £230 in Betfair account, now down to about £40.
I was considering laying correct scores when my bank was at around £200, as that gives you licence to lay longer odds/higher scores.
Would be interested in trying the laying correct scores route, so will keep an eye on your blog for tips and ideas.
Regards
Dean