Which correct score to lay?

The 3 most important statistics to look at before deciding which correct score to lay are:
1. Home team GF/GA avg(when playing at home)
2. Away team GF/GA avg(when playing away)
3. League avg HGF/AGF.
The importance of the first 2 should be obvious. It shows us what the particular team would be expected to score vs an average team.
The final statistic is extremely important. It shows how many goals an average home team and away team scores. We need to compare the values from numbers 1 & 2 to the values in 3.
For example:
Team A(Home) average 1.5gf and 1.5ga at home
Team B(Away) average 1.4gf and 1.6ga away from home
Just looking at these you night think Team A was a slight favourite here or perhaps a draw was the most likely right?.............WRONG!
When we include the current league average we get a whole different perspective.
Lets say these teams play in the Premier League where this season the average game has approx 1.712hg and 1.057ag.
Now let's compare that to Team statistics.
Team A's goals for are 0.212gpg below average and their defense concedes 0.443gpg more than average.
Team B's goals for are 0.343gpg more than average and their defense concedes 0.112gpg less than average.
So just by comparing the values to the league average we can see in fact that Team B is a better than average team and Team A is distinctly below average. Team B would be the favorite here and priced at around 2.3.
I might lay 2-0(home) in this game at 20 or lower.
It is rare that I will lay a correct score which involves the favorite winning. (Note: There are some cases for example if there is very little between the teams I might lay 3-0 to the favorite)
As a rule of thumb I will also try to avoid laying 1-1 in any game except where the home team is a HUGE favorite.
I'll go more into finding the right price to lay at in another post but this should be a good start for handicapping your own games and finding mis-priced correct scores to lay.
The correct score market is a derivative of the match odds market. Meaning if a match odds result is under-priced then the correct scores likely are too.