I have found the time though to begin design a database to fill with historical tennis match data. There are a number of things I want to analyse. Not only player abilities but also trends such as the correlation between the match win price and the 1st set result.
An example would be players priced to win @ between 1.01-1.05 win the 1st set %x of the time.
There's that plus a whole bunch of other queries it can answer. Plus I have a few general handicapping ideas I want to try so i'm quite excited(sad I know) about finally finishing it.
hi great blog,keep up the good work,
ReplyDeleteplease can you add my blog to yours if you think is worth it,
http://tradingbetfairfun.blogspot.com/
Thanks
Hi
ReplyDeleteGreat to see it is more than just me that is laying correct score markets. I have been doing it for a while and this is my stats:
I average 30% profit each month with an average odds at around 35. I have around 100matches each month. I was wondering what is you stats?? And what kind of staking plan do you use. Anyway keep up your good work with the bloog. I have just bookmark´d it :D
just read your whole blog. I see we think a like. I have been playing a bit with the thought of dividing my account just like you have done. One for small odds. And one for bigger odds. All I was wondering was what is your percentage liability each bet? I use a very aggresive staking plan. This has worked for me because of my high strike rate. But I am worrying when the really bad week will come and I will lose, let´s say 3 matches in one week. Any advice??? and thoughts. If you want to mail me my address is: Tippus83@me.com
ReplyDeleteHi Tippus,
ReplyDeleteI use fractional Kelly criterion for optimal bet sizing. The fraction size is correlated with the accuracy of my estimations of my edge size for each bet. I recommend you check out the simultaneous Kelly calculator a couple posts back.
regards
CSL